8501.0 - Retail Trade, Australia, Aug 2004

ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 30/09/2004

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Main Features
About this Release

AUGUST KEY FIGURES

		Aug 04	Jul 04 to Aug 04
		$m	% change

Turnover at current prices
	Trend estimates	16,630.6	0.4
	Seasonally adjusted estimates	16,566.5	0.2

Monthly turnover, Trend estimates - % change
Graph: Monthly turnover, Trend estimates - percentage change

AUGUST KEY POINTS

TREND ESTIMATES

The trend estimate of turnover for the Australian Retail and Hospitality/Services series increased by 0.4% in August 2004. This follows revised increases of 0.4% in July and 0.5% in June.
The trend estimate increased in all states and territories. The largest increases in August 2004 were in Queensland and Western Australia (+0.7%) and Northern Territory (+0.6%).
Over the three months to August 2004 the trend estimate increased by $199m. Food retailing (+$87m), Department stores and Clothing and soft good retailing (+$37m) and Other retailing (+$31m) had the largest increases.

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES

The seasonally adjusted estimate of turnover for the Australian Retail and Hospitality/Services series increased by 0.2% (+$36m) in August 2004. This followed a fall of 1.0% (-$159m) in July 2004.
All states and territories except New South Wales, South Australia and Tasmania recorded growth with Victoria (+1.4%, +$54m) and Queensland (+1.1%, +$37m) having the strongest growth.

ORIGINAL ESTIMATES

In original terms, Australian turnover fell by 3.0% in August 2004 compared with July 2004. Chains and other large retailers (which are completely enumerated) fell by 4.1%, while 'smaller' retailers (the sampled units) fell by 1.6%.
Australian turnover increased by 4.4% in August 2004 compared with August 2003. Chains and other large retailers increased by 5.7%, while 'smaller' retailers increased by 2.7%.

NOTES

SEASONAL REANALYSIS

As advised in the July 2004 issue of this publication, the normal annual review of the seasonal adjustment process has been undertaken on data up to July 2004. In addition, ARIMA modelling has been incorporated into the seasonal adjustment process for the majority of the Retail trade series and all series have a changed treatment of the trading day component. As a result of these changes the seasonally adjusted and, to a lesser extent, the trend series have been revised. However, for the August 2004 seasonally adjusted movement estimate, the estimate calculated using the new methodology is the same as that which would have been calculated using the previous methodology. For more information about ARIMA modelling, refer to Feature article: Use of ARIMA modelling to reduce revisions in the October 2004 issue of Australian Economic Indicators (cat. no. 1350.0).

CHAIN VOLUME MEASURES

Revised chain volume data to June quarter 2004 incorporating the new sample design and improved estimation method introduced in the July 2004 issue, and the results of the annual seasonal reanalysis are included in this publication. In addition, the implicit price deflators used to construct the chain volume measures have been re-referenced to 1999-2000, something that usually occurs every five years. They have also been seasonally reanalysed. The chain volume data for September quarter 2004 will appear as normal in the next issue.

NET PROCEEDS FROM GAMBLING

The Appendix 'Contribution of Gambling to Retail Estimates' normally included in this issue is not available due to delays in incorporating the new sample design and improved estimation method introduced in the July 2004 issue for other series. However, estimates for June quarter 2004 based on the 'old' sample design and estimation methods are included in paragraph 18 of the Explanatory Notes. The ABS is developing a new electronic release to replace the Appendix and this will improve the timeliness of the data. Further details will be presented in the September 2004 issue.

DATA REVISIONS

There have been revisions to the data for Takeaway food retailing for July 2004 due to revised data being provided by respondents.

INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Graham Phillips on Canberra (02) 6252 5625.

SUMMARY COMMENTARY

INDUSTRY TRENDS

MONTHLY SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES

TOTAL RETAIL

The Australian Retail and Hospitality/Services trend estimate has had moderate growth for the last 10 months. Department stores and Clothing and soft good retailing have had strong growth for six and five months, respectively, while Food retailing has had moderate growth for 19 months. Hospitality and services has been in decline for three months.

FOOD RETAILING

Moderate trend growth has continued with Western Australia and the Northern Territory having the strongest rates of growth in recent months. New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia and Tasmania have had moderate growth in 2004. Victoria was in decline in July and August 2004.

DEPARTMENT STORES

There has been strong trend growth for the last six months. Over the last five months, New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, South Australia and Western Australia have had strong trend growth with Queensland and Western Australia having the strongest growth.

Graph: Industry trends_Department stores

CLOTHING AND SOFT GOOD RETAILING

There has been strong growth in the trend estimate over the last five months. Victoria, Queensland and the Northern Territory have had strong trend growth for six or more months, South Australia for five months and Tasmania for three months. The Australian Capital Territory has been flat or in decline for 11 months.

Graph: Industry trends_Clothing and soft good retailing

HOUSEHOLD GOOD RETAILING

There has been weak trend growth since February 2004. In the last three months, Western Australia and the Australian Capital Territory have had strong growth, New South Wales and Tasmania have had moderate trend growth, and South Australia has been in decline. In August 2004, Victoria had weak growth after being in decline.

Graph: Industry trends_Household good retailing

RECREATIONAL GOOD RETAILING

Trend growth was in decline in August and July 2004 after no growth in June. New South Wales has been in decline for 10 months and Victoria and Western Australia have been in decline for six months. South Australia had moderate growth in August 2004 after strong trend growth for 10 months. Queensland and Tasmania had weak and moderate growth, respectively, in August 2004 after periods of strong growth.

Graph: Industry trends_Recreational good retailing

OTHER RETAILING

There has been moderate trend growth for the last four months driven by strong growth in Queensland. New South Wales has been in decline for 10 months and the Australian Capital Territory for six months. Victoria has had eight months of being flat or in decline. Growth in Western Australia has moderated after a nine months of strong growth.

TOTAL RETAIL (excluding Hospitality and Services)

Total retail (excluding Hospitality and services) has had moderate growth for the last six months. Over this period, the rate of trend growth has been slightly stronger or the same as that of Total industries (including Hospitality and services).

Graph: Industry trends_Total retail (excluding Hospitality and services)

HOSPITALITY AND SERVICES

After strong trend growth from June to November 2003, the industry has been in decline for three months. Victoria, Queensland, South Australia and Tasmania have been in decline for the last three months. New South Wales, Western Australia and the Australian Capital Territory moved into decline in August 2004.

Graph: Industry trends_Hospitality and services

STATE TRENDS

MONTHLY SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES

NEW SOUTH WALES

There has been weak to moderate trend growth for the last 11 months. Over the last six months Department stores has had strong growth and Food and Clothing and soft good retailing have had moderate trend growth. Recreational good and Other retailing have been in decline over this period. Hospitality and services has decreased from strong growth in May 2004 to a decline in August 2004.

VICTORIA

Trend growth has been weak for the last six months. Clothing and soft good retailing has had strong growth in each of these months, while Department stores had moderate growth in August 2004 after four months of strong growth. All other industries have been flat or in decline for at least the last three months.

QUEENSLAND

Trend growth was moderate in July and August 2004 after slightly stronger growth in June and May. Over the last six months Department stores, Clothing and soft good retailing and Other retailing have had strong trend growth, Food retailing has had moderate growth, and Hospitality and services has been in decline. Recreational good retailing was weak in August 2004 after six months of strong growth.

SOUTH AUSTRALIA

In August 2004, the trend growth remained weak for the third consecutive month following six months of moderate growth. Over the last five months there was strong growth in Recreational good retailing, Clothing and soft good retailing and Department stores, while Household good retailing and Hospitality and services were in decline.

WESTERN AUSTRALIA

Trend growth was moderate in August 2004 after being strong for the previous six months. Department stores and Household good retailing have had strong growth over the last six months. Food retailing and Other retailing had moderate growth in August 2004 after a period of strong growth. Recreational good retailing and Hospitality and services were in decline in August 2004.

TASMANIA

The trend growth has been moderate for the last six months with Food retailing continuing moderate growth. Over the last three months Clothing and soft good retailing has had strong trend growth, Household good retailing has had moderate growth and Hospitality and services has been in decline. Recreational good retailing had moderate growth in August 2004 after four months of strong growth.